Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 9.975555 11.708181 13.602556 15.821004 18.340853 21.107063 24.366255
2025-01-19 7.054492 9.343745 12.103244 15.643814 20.032054 25.256313 31.906636
2025-01-26 5.762382 8.442449 11.942086 16.771191 23.175140 31.280677 42.204825
2025-02-02 4.760201 7.625283 11.636549 17.525156 25.785958 36.776989 52.282694
2025-02-09 4.011810 6.965967 11.366771 18.185771 28.223581 42.151962 62.560533
2025-02-16 3.281506 6.162480 10.717575 18.143903 29.573910 46.053502 71.038462
2025-02-23 2.629402 5.337582 9.876753 17.648412 30.125610 48.770474 77.943100
2025-03-02 2.082352 4.570159 8.987694 16.919690 30.179302 50.674661 83.700970
2025-03-09 1.744401 4.111092 8.537852 16.828841 31.186612 54.036873 91.796897
2025-03-16 1.442208 3.653471 8.010539 16.517558 31.764397 56.721291 98.965607
2025-03-23 1.323286 3.552314 8.129612 17.362380 34.355806 62.777422 111.774071
2025-03-30 1.153442 3.300324 7.911634 17.544261 35.782201 66.986402 121.820311
2025-04-06 0.982484 3.014343 7.595863 17.530197 36.908894 70.862032 131.724821
2025-04-13 0.839301 2.762694 7.314473 17.552639 38.110744 74.963096 142.289807
2025-04-20 0.804797 2.788589 7.649913 18.873727 41.876641 83.777601 161.348036
2025-04-27 0.742404 2.722408 7.763071 19.734801 44.815350 91.288698 178.541988
2025-05-04 0.679376 2.638366 7.819676 20.475222 47.566760 98.611439 195.765161
2025-05-11 0.584627 2.431144 7.539799 20.432149 48.727110 103.069786 208.124743
2025-05-18 0.482404 2.167003 7.067060 19.884806 48.789125 105.461336 216.866900
2025-05-25 0.387732 1.894174 6.517403 19.078140 48.216668 106.584889 223.317380
2025-06-01 0.331942 1.742724 6.273214 18.977611 49.147396 110.652305 235.397520
2025-06-08 0.277469 1.575133 5.949423 18.632731 49.499529 113.584928 245.465221
2025-06-15 0.263268 1.570831 6.115112 19.568638 52.809713 122.603724 267.514257